Track record

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) stock forecast — our track record

41 completed MSFT stock predictions — wins and misses, nothing deleted. Each forecast was published before the outcome was known.

41
scored MSFT calls — every one whose window has closed, nothing deleted
-4.5%
median return at the window close, from the publication price
5 of 41
hit or exceeded the predicted growth
+9.4%
median peak inside the window — peak, not a realized return
Every call, month by monthOne cell per closed signal
Jul ’25 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan ’26 Feb Mar Apr May Jun
5 Target reached
6 Near target
30 Partial
0 Missed

How our MSFT forecasts have done

Lyra published 41 MSFT stock forecasts beginning July 3, 2025. Every prediction was released before its outcome was known, then closed and scored after its forecast window ended. All 41 calls used the short term (0 to 3 months) horizon. The final forecast window ended September 3, 2026.

The targets were reached in 11 forecasts. Another 30 received partial credit, and none of them missed. The average success score across the completed calls was 59.8%. Since every call covered the same short-term horizon, there was no medium-term or long-term result to compare with it. The short-term calls also had an average score of 59.8%.

The best call was published May 15, 2026. It predicted 16% growth, and the stock rose as much as 24.1% during the forecast window. The target was reached in 80 days, and the call received a 100% score. The worst call was published November 3, 2025. It predicted 18% growth, but the stock rose only 0.2% during the window. It did not reach its target and received a 50% score. Overall, the track record contained several full target hits, but most calls received partial credit.

Written from the closed signals below; refreshed when new signals close.

Closed MSFT signals

ClosedTimeframePredictedAt closePeak resultOutcomeDays to target
September 3, 2026
August 13, 2026
August 5, 2026
July 30, 2026
July 16, 2026
July 15, 2026
July 14, 2026
June 17, 2026
June 4, 2026
May 31, 2026
May 26, 2026
May 25, 2026
May 11, 2026
May 10, 2026
April 23, 2026
April 7, 2026
March 18, 2026
March 17, 2026
March 8, 2026
February 9, 2026
February 1, 2026
January 22, 2026
January 20, 2026
January 19, 2026
January 18, 2026
December 29, 2025
December 28, 2025
December 25, 2025
December 18, 2025
December 11, 2025
December 3, 2025
December 2, 2025
December 1, 2025
November 30, 2025
November 25, 2025
November 24, 2025
November 23, 2025
October 23, 2025
October 12, 2025
October 5, 2025
October 1, 2025

At close is the return from the publication price to the last close inside the signal’s measurement window — what the window actually delivered. Peak result is the highest point inside that window, labelled as peak because it is not a realized return.

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Every published signal is scored against what the stock actually did — the same way MSFT was. No deleted misses, no cherry-picking.