Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from June 5, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 3, 2026 — +19.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$426.49 Published $520.32 Target $510.12 Window close $517.78 Peak
$416.00 – $430.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$426.49Published — price the day we called it
$520.32Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$517.78Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$510.12Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 97% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+19.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+21.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$510.12
last close inside the window, ended September 3, 2026
Peak price
$517.78
peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$520.32
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$416.00 – $430.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$426.49
published June 5, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is a large, well-positioned tech company with steady demand for cloud services, productivity tools, and AI. Earnings look solid and the company has a strong balance sheet, which helps limit downside. Market attention on AI supports demand but also means valuation should be watched. Short-term (0-3 month) risk/reward looks favorable if tech breadth holds.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand for cloud and AI services
  • Microsoft 365 and security provide steady recurring cash flow
  • A strong balance sheet helps limit downside risk
  • AI-focused coverage keeps cloud spending in focus

How it played out

MSFT: 21.4% peak gain fell short of the target

Lyra published MSFT at $426.49 with an expected gain of 22%. The thesis pointed to demand for cloud services and artificial intelligence, recurring cash flow from Microsoft 365 and security, and the company's balance sheet. It described the short-term risk and reward as favorable if technology-sector breadth held.

MSFT rose to a peak of $517.78 on August 28, a gain of 21.4%. It stayed below the $520.32 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $510.12 on September 3. The thesis largely played out, but it missed its stated target.

What happened during the window

On July 29, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $90.0 billion and said Azure and other cloud services revenue increased 43%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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