Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from May 1, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 30, 2026 — +8.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$414.27 Published $488.84 Target $451.10 Window close $466.32 Peak
$405.00 – $418.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$414.27Published — price the day we called it
$488.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$466.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$451.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+8.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$451.10
last close inside the window, ended July 30, 2026
Peak price
$466.32
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published May 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$488.84
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$405.00 – $418.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$414.27
published May 1, 2026
Confidence
85%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft combines cloud services, productivity software, and AI tools in a way that looks solid for the next few months. Recent analyst support after big tech earnings helped sentiment. The stock chart looks reasonable and the company has a strong balance sheet. Ongoing questions about AI budgets and a broad market rally keep expectations in check.

Primary drivers

  • Azure, Office, GitHub and AI keep enterprise demand steady
  • Analyst target increase reinforces the cloud and AI story
  • Reliable software cash flow and net cash lower downside risk
  • Price action shows steady momentum without being extended

How it played out

MSFT: thesis partly played out, target was missed

Lyra published MSFT at 414.27 with expected growth of 18% and a target of 488.84. The thesis pointed to steady enterprise demand across Azure, Office, GitHub, and artificial intelligence tools. It also cited analyst support, reliable software cash flow, net cash, and steady price momentum.

The stock peaked at 466.32 on June 1, 2026, for a 12.6% gain. It stayed below the target throughout the window and ended at 451.10 on July 30, 2026. The price rose, but the published expectation was not reached. The thesis partly played out.

What happened during the window

On July 29, 2026, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $90.0 billion, up 18%, and said Azure and other cloud services revenue increased 43%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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