Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from June 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 24, 2026 — +34.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$371.36 Published $438.20 Target $497.93 Window close $517.78 Peak
$355.00 – $375.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$371.36Published — price the day we called it
$438.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$517.78Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$497.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 34 days.

At window close
+34.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+39.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$497.93
last close inside the window, ended September 24, 2026
Peak price
$517.78
peak on August 28, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
34

The thesis — published June 26, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$438.20
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$355.00 – $375.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$371.36
published June 26, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft looks like a plausible short-term rebound within tech: steady demand for cloud, software and AI is helping offset a recent Nasdaq-led selloff. Recent reports of rising enterprise and dedicated AI budgets strengthen demand expectations. Shares fell hard, so sentiment and negative price momentum justify waiting for clearer signs of stabilization.

Primary drivers

  • Ongoing demand for cloud services and enterprise software
  • Companies setting aside specific budgets for AI spending
  • Large cash position and predictable recurring sales
  • Recent heavy selling makes a rebound more likely if it steadies

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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