Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from April 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 16, 2026 — -5.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$425.05 Published $480.31 Target $401.10 Window close $466.32 Peak
$410.00 – $422.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$425.05Published — price the day we called it
$480.31Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$466.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$401.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-5.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$401.10
last close inside the window, ended July 16, 2026
Peak price
$466.32
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published April 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$480.31
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$410.00 – $422.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$425.05
published April 17, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is a leader in cloud and AI work, and a new AI data center coming online sooner than expected strengthens that story. However, the stock has climbed quickly and looks stretched compared with its recent trend. A short pause or mild decline would make the setup cleaner for the next 0-3 months rather than buying into nonstop strength.

Primary drivers

  • Early data center start supports AI infrastructure leadership
  • Strong cloud and enterprise software businesses persist
  • Market favors top companies building AI capacity
  • Recent strong gain raises risk of a short-term pullback

How it played out

MSFT: the thesis partially played out

Lyra published a short-term MSFT thesis at 425.05, expecting 13% growth to 480.31. The thesis pointed to an earlier data center start, strength in cloud and enterprise software, and market demand for companies building artificial intelligence capacity. It also noted that the recent rise raised the risk of a pullback.

MSFT rose to 466.32 on June 1, a 9.7% peak gain, but stayed below the target and never reached it. The shares ended the window at 401.10, below the 425.05 publication price. The growth case played out only in part, then reversed before the window closed.

What happened during the window

On April 29, 2026, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $82.9 billion, up 18%, and operating income of $38.4 billion, up 20%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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