Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from April 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$425.05 Published $480.31 Target $401.10 Window close $466.32 Peak
$410.00 – $422.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$425.05Published — price the day we called it
$480.31Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$466.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$401.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$466.32
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$401.10
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
April 17, 2026 – July 16, 2026

The thesis — published April 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$480.31
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$410.00 – $422.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$425.05
published April 17, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is a leader in cloud and AI work, and a new AI data center coming online sooner than expected strengthens that story. However, the stock has climbed quickly and looks stretched compared with its recent trend. A short pause or mild decline would make the setup cleaner for the next 0-3 months rather than buying into nonstop strength.

Primary drivers

  • Early data center start supports AI infrastructure leadership
  • Strong cloud and enterprise software businesses persist
  • Market favors top companies building AI capacity
  • Recent strong gain raises risk of a short-term pullback

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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