Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from July 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 29, 2026 — +35.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$376.58 Published $440.60 Target $508.96 Window close $519.40 Peak
$365.00 – $382.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$376.58Published — price the day we called it
$440.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$519.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$508.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 29 days.

At window close
+35.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+37.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$508.96
last close inside the window, ended September 29, 2026
Peak price
$519.40
peak on September 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
29

The thesis — published July 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$440.60
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$365.00 – $382.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$376.58
published July 1, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is a steady tech leader because many businesses keep paying for its cloud, software, security, and AI services. The company makes good profit margins, has financial flexibility, and keeps beating earnings estimates. Recent job cuts are a sign of cost control during heavy AI spending. Weak short-term price action and softer sentiment suggest cautious growth expectations.

Primary drivers

  • Wide, repeat demand for cloud, software, security, and AI services
  • Job cuts viewed as cost control during big AI investment
  • Strong balance sheet and repeated earnings outperformance
  • Short-term weak price action keeps growth assumptions cautious

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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