Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from October 20, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$514.32 Published $595.49 Target $459.86 Window close $552.69 Peak
$503.11 – $518.06Entry zone — fair-value band
$514.32Published — price the day we called it
$595.49Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$552.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$459.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$552.69
peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$459.86
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
October 20, 2025 – January 18, 2026

The thesis — published October 20, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$595.49
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$503.11 – $518.06
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$514.32
published October 20, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft's cloud business, Azure, keeps gaining, and recent comments said sales there grew 33%, with about half coming from AI work. Copilot features are rolling out, creating new ways to charge for its software. The stock pulled back on heavy trading but its recent average price is edging up. If the price action turns up over the next few weeks, a 1-3 month bounce is likely.

Primary drivers

  • Azure is growing quickly; about half of its gain comes from AI projects.
  • Pullback came with heavy trading, hinting value-minded buyers stepped in.
  • Copilot tools are launching, giving Microsoft new ways to earn from software.
  • Its large size and cash create steady demand that can help smooth price swings.

How it played out

MSFT: target was not reached

Lyra published MSFT on 2025-10-20 at 514.32. The thesis looked for 16% growth over a short-term window, with a target at 595.49. It pointed to Azure growth of 33%, Copilot rollouts, a pullback on heavy trading, and Microsoft's scale and cash as support for a 1-3 month bounce.

Inside the window, the stock rose to a peak of 552.69 on 2025-10-28, a 7.5% gain. That stayed below the target. It never got there. By 2026-01-18, MSFT ended at 459.86. The thesis partially played out early, but the published target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $77.7 billion and Azure growth of about 40%. The same report said Microsoft spent $34.9 billion on artificial-intelligence projects during the quarter. These were reported events, not proven causes of the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MSFT signals