Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from September 30, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 29, 2025 — -4.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$503.12 – $518.06Entry zone — fair-value band

$511.35Published — price the day we called it

$597.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$552.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$487.10Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-4.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+8.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$487.10

last close inside the window, ended December 29, 2025

Peak price

$552.69

peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 30, 2025

Predicted growth

+17%

over the measurement window

Target price

$597.16

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$503.12 – $518.06

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$511.35

published September 30, 2025

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is a main platform for AI, and the price trend has been steady and improving. Buying interest looks stronger than usual, which supports adding shares a bit at a time. Recent partner news helps: on 9-30 Talkdesk tightened links with Azure and Teams, and Grafana said $400M in yearly subscriptions, both broadening Microsoft's reach. As AI money-making grows across Azure and 365, shares could climb gradually over the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

More partners plug into Microsoft, widening AI product reach and customer appeal
Buying activity looks strong, making new positions more comfortable to start
More ways to earn revenue from cloud services across Azure and 365
Viewed as a reliable core holding that investors steadily add to over time

How it played out

MSFT: thesis missed the target

Lyra published MSFT at $511.35 on 2025-09-30. The thesis expected 17% growth over a short-term window, with a target of $597.16. It pointed to stronger partner reach around artificial intelligence products, stronger buying activity, more cloud revenue paths across Azure and 365, and steady investor demand for a core holding.

Inside the window, the stock rose to a peak of $552.69 on 2025-10-28, a gain of 8.1%. That stayed below the target. It never got there. By 2025-12-29, MSFT ended at $487.10. The thesis partially caught the early rise, but it missed the full target.

What happened during the window

On October 29, 2025, Microsoft reported first-quarter earnings of $3.72 per share and revenue of $77.7 billion. The same day, Microsoft said an Azure Front Door issue affected services that used it.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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