Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) — closed signal from December 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$481.76 Published $549.21 Target $391.79 Window close $489.70 Peak
$472.00 – $485.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$481.76Published — price the day we called it
$549.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$489.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$391.79Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 11% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$489.70
peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$391.79
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
December 18, 2025 – March 18, 2026

The thesis — published December 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$549.21
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$472.00 – $485.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$481.76
published December 18, 2025
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft looks like a solid buy after a recent pullback. A big customer, Cognizant, expanded its deal to use Copilot and Azure, and industry data show data center spending is up 59%, which helps cloud demand. The recent dip appears short-term, while the longer-term trend and steady buying make a near-term rebound more likely if support holds.

Primary drivers

  • Cognizant deal should increase Copilot and Azure usage
  • 59% rise in data center spending supports cloud demand
  • Short-term dip but longer-term trend still favors upside
  • Large market cap can draw renewed investor interest after volatility

How it played out

MSFT: target was not reached

Lyra published MSFT on 2025-12-18 at 481.76. The thesis expected 14% growth to 549.21. It pointed to an expanded Cognizant deal for Copilot and Azure, a 59% rise in data center spending, a short-term dip inside a longer-term uptrend, and possible renewed interest after volatility.

Inside the window, MSFT peaked at 489.70 on 2026-01-07, a 1.6% gain. That was below the target. It never got there. By 2026-03-18, the stock ended at 391.79. The rebound thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-28, Microsoft reported fiscal Q2 2026 results. The report said revenue was $81.3 billion, net income was $30.9 billion, cloud revenue crossed $50 billion, and Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 39%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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