Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) — closed signal from December 18, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on March 18, 2026 — -18.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$472.00 – $485.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$481.76Published — price the day we called it

$549.21Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$489.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$391.79Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 11% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-18.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+1.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

-1.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$391.79

last close inside the window, ended March 18, 2026

Peak price

$489.70

peak on January 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published December 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$549.21

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$472.00 – $485.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$481.76

published December 18, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft looks like a solid buy after a recent pullback. A big customer, Cognizant, expanded its deal to use Copilot and Azure, and industry data show data center spending is up 59%, which helps cloud demand. The recent dip appears short-term, while the longer-term trend and steady buying make a near-term rebound more likely if support holds.

Primary drivers

Cognizant deal should increase Copilot and Azure usage
59% rise in data center spending supports cloud demand
Short-term dip but longer-term trend still favors upside
Large market cap can draw renewed investor interest after volatility

How it played out

MSFT: target was not reached

Lyra published MSFT on 2025-12-18 at 481.76. The thesis expected 14% growth to 549.21. It pointed to an expanded Cognizant deal for Copilot and Azure, a 59% rise in data center spending, a short-term dip inside a longer-term uptrend, and possible renewed interest after volatility.

Inside the window, MSFT peaked at 489.70 on 2026-01-07, a 1.6% gain. That was below the target. It never got there. By 2026-03-18, the stock ended at 391.79. The rebound thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-28, Microsoft reported fiscal Q2 2026 results. The report said revenue was $81.3 billion, net income was $30.9 billion, cloud revenue crossed $50 billion, and Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 39%.

Microsoft reports strong cloud earnings in Q2 as gaming declines

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MSFT signals