Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from March 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 17, 2026 — -3.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$391.24 Published $438.19 Target $378.91 Window close $466.32 Peak
$386.00 – $395.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$391.24Published — price the day we called it
$438.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$466.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$378.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 71 days.

At window close
-3.2%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+19.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+12.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$378.91
last close inside the window, ended June 17, 2026
Peak price
$466.32
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
71

The thesis — published March 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$438.19
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$386.00 – $395.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$391.24
published March 19, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is a top-quality tech company with steady business and a lot of investment in AI capacity that strengthens its cloud business. That investment helps future sales but headline discussion about OpenAI and Amazon creates short-term uncertainty. Over the next quarter, its reliable results and strong cash position make buying on small pullbacks more sensible than chasing big momentum moves.

Primary drivers

  • Azure and company AI tools keep driving sales growth
  • Big spending on AI capacity makes cloud services more reliable
  • Steady profits make the stock less likely to plunge on bad news
  • Large cash reserves help the company ride through headlines

How it played out

MSFT: target reached in 71 days before a reversal

Lyra published a short-term thesis at $391.24, with 12% expected growth and a $438.19 target. The thesis pointed to Azure and company artificial intelligence tools driving sales growth, heavy capacity spending supporting cloud reliability, steady profits, and large cash reserves. It favored small pullbacks over chasing momentum.

Inside the window, MSFT reached the $438.19 target in 71 days and later peaked at $466.32 on June 1, a 19.2% gain from publication. It then fell to $378.91 by June 17. The target was reached and the peak exceeded it, but the stock ended below the $391.24 publication price. The short-term thesis played out before reversing by the close.

What happened during the window

On April 29, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $82.9 billion, up 18%, and net income of $31.8 billion, up 23%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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