Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from April 15, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on July 14, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$402.25 Published $458.57 Target $384.93 Window close $466.32 Peak
$395.00 – $405.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$402.25Published — price the day we called it
$458.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$466.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$384.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 47 days.

Peak price
$466.32
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$384.93
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
47
Window
April 15, 2026 – July 14, 2026

The thesis — published April 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$458.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$395.00 – $405.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$402.25
published April 15, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft's core business of software and cloud services keeps demand steady, and recent news about leasing GPUs and expanding data-center land adds practical capacity for AI work that should help Azure. The chart looks crowded after a strong run, so the setup seems most sensible if the price stabilizes rather than continues straight up.

Primary drivers

  • Regular demand from companies for software and cloud services
  • New GPU leases and data-center land increase AI capacity
  • Consistent earnings results help keep estimates supported
  • Strong balance sheet reduces risk from AI spending swings

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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