Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from July 13, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 11, 2026 — +37.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$388.23 Published $458.11 Target $535.07 Window close $537.22 Peak
$375.00 – $388.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$388.23Published — price the day we called it
$458.11Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$537.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$535.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 17 days.

At window close
+37.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+38.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$535.07
last close inside the window, ended October 11, 2026
Peak price
$537.22
peak on October 9, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
17

The thesis — published July 13, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$458.11
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$375.00 – $388.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$388.23
published July 13, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft benefits from steady demand for cloud services and software, high profit margins, and consistent earnings results. Trading activity is positive but recently stretched, so buying after a small pullback looks more balanced. Forecasts for heavier data-center spending support Azure and AI work, though near-term capital spending risks limit immediate upside.

Primary drivers

  • Rising demand for Azure cloud and business software
  • Heavy spending on AI and data-center infrastructure
  • Consistent earnings and healthy profit margins
  • Stable recurring sales across major products and services

How it played out

MSFT: target reached in 17 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for an 18% rise from 388.23. The thesis pointed to demand for Azure and business software, data-center and artificial intelligence spending, steady recurring sales, consistent earnings, and healthy margins. It also noted that trading looked stretched and favored a small pullback.

MSFT reached the 458.11 target in 17 days. It later peaked at 537.22 on October 9, a 38.4% gain, and ended the window at 535.07. The published thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective.

What happened during the window

On July 29, 2026, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $90.0 billion, up 18%, while Azure and other cloud services revenue rose 43%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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