Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from May 15, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 13, 2026 — +20% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$413.90 Published $480.12 Target $496.88 Window close $513.73 Peak
$405.00 – $418.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$413.90Published — price the day we called it
$480.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$513.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$496.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 80 days.

At window close
+20%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+24.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$496.88
last close inside the window, ended August 13, 2026
Peak price
$513.73
peak on August 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
80

The thesis — published May 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$480.12
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$405.00 – $418.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$413.90
published May 15, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is a leading provider of cloud services and AI tools. OpenAI's need for more computing keeps demand for Microsoft's cloud strong, while a U.K. inquiry into bundling Office, Teams, Copilot and Azure creates short-term headline risk. The company's steady profits, cash on hand and broad enterprise customers make the next 0-3 months constructive without treating the price move as fully confirmed.

Primary drivers

  • Azure and Copilot are primary engines for AI-driven sales growth
  • OpenAI's compute needs boost demand for cloud infrastructure
  • Wide enterprise software lineup supports steady earnings
  • U.K. antitrust review is the main near-term regulatory risk

How it played out

MSFT: target reached in 80 days

Lyra published MSFT at 413.90 with expected growth of 16% over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to Azure and Copilot sales, computing demand from a major partner, and Microsoft's broad enterprise software lineup. It also cited the U.K. inquiry as a near-term risk.

The price reached the 480.12 target in 80 days. It peaked at 513.73 on August 10, a gain of 24.1%, then ended the window at 496.88 on August 13. The thesis played out and the price exceeded the published target.

What happened during the window

On July 29, 2026, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $90.0 billion, up 18%, and Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 43%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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