Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from May 15, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 13, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$413.90 Published $480.12 Target $496.88 Window close $513.73 Peak
$405.00 – $418.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$413.90Published — price the day we called it
$480.12Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$513.73Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$496.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 80 days.

Peak price
$513.73
peak on August 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+24.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$496.88
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
80
Window
May 15, 2026 – August 13, 2026

The thesis — published May 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$480.12
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$405.00 – $418.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$413.90
published May 15, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is a leading provider of cloud services and AI tools. OpenAI's need for more computing keeps demand for Microsoft's cloud strong, while a U.K. inquiry into bundling Office, Teams, Copilot and Azure creates short-term headline risk. The company's steady profits, cash on hand and broad enterprise customers make the next 0-3 months constructive without treating the price move as fully confirmed.

Primary drivers

  • Azure and Copilot are primary engines for AI-driven sales growth
  • OpenAI's compute needs boost demand for cloud infrastructure
  • Wide enterprise software lineup supports steady earnings
  • U.K. antitrust review is the main near-term regulatory risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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