Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from July 3, 2025
Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025 — +4.4% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Came within reach: 94% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.
The thesis — published July 3, 2025
Microsoft’s new AI helper, Copilot, plus faster growth in Azure keep its outlook strong. Wedbush called the stock a top pick for the rest of the year on Jul 3, drawing fresh attention before the September Ignite event. While one short-term chart signal is soft, the price is holding above its longer-term average near $485, showing buyers are active. At about 32 times next year’s earnings, a jump to $560 (about 12 %) looks doable in three months as new subscription data appear.
Primary drivers
- Selling Copilot extras boosts yearly subscription money and keeps Azure growing fast
- Wedbush calling Microsoft a top pick on July 3 boosts confidence for the rest of the year
- Price holding above its recent averages suggests big investors keep buying
- September’s Ignite event may reveal new prices, giving investors a fresh growth story
How it played out
MSFT: target was missed after an 11.3% peak
Lyra published MSFT on 2025-07-03 at $497.09 for a short-term window ending 2025-10-01. The thesis expected 12% growth. It pointed to Copilot add-ons, Azure growth, Wedbush calling Microsoft a top pick on July 3, the price holding above recent averages, and a possible Ignite event catalyst.
Inside the window, MSFT peaked at $553.50 on 2025-07-31, an 11.3% gain. That stayed below the $554.79 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $518.74. The thesis mostly played out on price, but it missed the published target.
What happened during the window
On July 30, 2025, Microsoft reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $76.4 billion and net income of $27.2 billion. The Verge reported that Azure revenue grew 39% year over year and that Azure passed $75 billion for the fiscal year.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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