Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from July 3, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published July 3, 2025
Microsoft’s new AI helper, Copilot, plus faster growth in Azure keep its outlook strong. Wedbush called the stock a top pick for the rest of the year on Jul 3, drawing fresh attention before the September Ignite event. While one short-term chart signal is soft, the price is holding above its longer-term average near $485, showing buyers are active. At about 32 times next year’s earnings, a jump to $560 (about 12 %) looks doable in three months as new subscription data appear.
Primary drivers
- Selling Copilot extras boosts yearly subscription money and keeps Azure growing fast
- Wedbush calling Microsoft a top pick on July 3 boosts confidence for the rest of the year
- Price holding above its recent averages suggests big investors keep buying
- September’s Ignite event may reveal new prices, giving investors a fresh growth story
How it played out
MSFT: target was missed after an 11.3% peak
Lyra published MSFT on 2025-07-03 at $497.09 for a short-term window ending 2025-10-01. The thesis expected 12% growth. It pointed to Copilot add-ons, Azure growth, Wedbush calling Microsoft a top pick on July 3, the price holding above recent averages, and a possible Ignite event catalyst.
Inside the window, MSFT peaked at $553.50 on 2025-07-31, an 11.3% gain. That stayed below the $554.79 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $518.74. The thesis mostly played out on price, but it missed the published target.
What happened during the window
On July 30, 2025, Microsoft reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $76.4 billion and net income of $27.2 billion. The Verge reported that Azure revenue grew 39% year over year and that Azure passed $75 billion for the fiscal year.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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