Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from November 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 9, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$496.14 – $506.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$503.96Published — price the day we called it

$593.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$512.54Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$413.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 9% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$512.54

peak on November 13, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+1.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$413.60

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

November 11, 2025 – February 9, 2026

The thesis — published November 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$593.56

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$496.14 – $506.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$503.96

published November 11, 2025

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft looks set for a short-term rebound after investors moved back into AI stocks on 11-10 optimism about avoiding a shutdown. The company's cloud and AI tools still have a strong story, even if the scoring model isn't excited right now. Some short-term signals are weak, so buying in small steps with clear exit levels makes sense. If rates stay calm, shares could revisit recent highs within 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Short-term weakness may set up a rebound as interest in AI returns
Strong position in cloud and everyday AI tools like Copilot and Azure
Investors shifting money back into AI companies helps near-term demand
Short-term signals are soft, so careful risk planning is important

How it played out

MSFT: the target was not reached

Lyra published MSFT on 2025-11-11 at 503.96 with an expected 18% gain and a 593.56 target. The thesis looked for a short-term rebound after weakness. It pointed to renewed interest in artificial intelligence names, Microsoft's cloud position, Copilot and Azure, and money moving back into artificial intelligence companies. It also noted that short-term signals were soft.

Inside the window, MSFT peaked at 512.54 on 2025-11-13. That was a 1.7% peak gain. It never reached 593.56. By 2026-02-09, it ended at 413.60. The early bounce was small, and the published thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On January 28, 2026, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $81.3 billion and net income of $30.9 billion. Microsoft Cloud revenue was above $50 billion. On January 29, 2026, Investopedia reported that MSFT closed at $433.50 after the earnings reaction.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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