Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from July 7, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 5, 2025 — +3.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$481.60 – $496.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$497.09Published — price the day we called it

$569.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$553.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$516.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+3.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$516.38

last close inside the window, ended October 5, 2025

Peak price

$553.50

peak on July 31, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 7, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$569.65

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$481.60 – $496.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$497.09

published July 7, 2025

Confidence

71%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft's share price is taking a breather after reaching new highs, but it keeps bouncing near its recent average price, a spot that has kicked off five rallies of 6-8% this year. On July 10 the company will discuss using its Azure cloud with Viome to study huge RNA data sets, which could start a new stream of health-care sales. Buyer interest remains high, and if the price climbs past $505 it could reach $520-$575 within three months.

Primary drivers

July 10 talk with Viome may show how Azure can enter the health-care AI market.
Shares sitting near their recent average have bounced 6-8% the last five times.
Strong buyer appetite and balanced trading activity signal steady demand.
Buying pressure has eased slightly, letting the stock rest without losing ground.

How it played out

MSFT: target was not reached

Lyra published MSFT at $497.09 on 2025-07-07 with an expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to a July 10 Viome discussion around Azure and health-care artificial intelligence, repeated 6-8% bounces near the recent average, strong buyer appetite, and a possible move past $505 toward $520-$575 within three months.

Inside the window, MSFT rose to a peak of $553.50 on 2025-07-31, a gain of 11.3%. That stayed below the $569.65 target. It ended the window at $516.38 on 2025-10-05. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-07-30, Microsoft reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $76.4 billion and earnings per share of $3.65. On 2025-07-31, Microsoft reached a $4 trillion market valuation after the earnings report.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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