Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from September 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 1, 2025 — -3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$488.17 – $503.11Entry zone — fair-value band

$501.80Published — price the day we called it

$591.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$552.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$486.74Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$486.74

last close inside the window, ended December 1, 2025

Peak price

$552.69

peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$591.02

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$488.17 – $503.11

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$501.80

published September 2, 2025

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft looks due for a short-term bounce after a pullback, and it remains a high-quality company tied to AI growth. Fresh news that US agencies get discounted cloud services and free Copilot, with potential $3B in savings, should encourage faster adoption and more paid seats. We prefer buying gradually around $490-$505 for a 0-3 month rebound as price swings calm down and overall market mood improves.

Primary drivers

US agencies get cheaper cloud and free Copilot, boosting sign-ups
Recent pullback with wider buying interest across the broader market
Big stream of repeat subscriptions that keeps cash coming in
Rising use of AI tools lifts demand for Microsoft's products

How it played out

MSFT: target was not reached

Lyra published MSFT at 501.80 on 2025-09-02. The thesis expected 18% growth to 591.02 over a short-term window. It pointed to a rebound after a pullback, cheaper cloud services and free Copilot for US agencies, repeat subscriptions, and rising demand tied to artificial intelligence tools.

Inside the window, MSFT rose to 552.69 on 2025-10-28, a 10.1% peak gain. That stayed below the 591.02 target. It ended the window at 486.74 on 2025-12-01. The bounce happened, but the full thesis did not. It was a partial hit.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 29, 2025, Microsoft reported revenue of $77.7 billion for the July-September quarter. The same day, AP reported that Microsoft spent nearly $35 billion on capital expenditures to support cloud and artificial intelligence demand.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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