Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from September 3, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 2, 2025 — -2.8% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 3, 2025
Microsoft looks temporarily out of favor, but its business remains strong. On 2025-09-03 it won a $6B government contract and expanded Copilot, showing steady demand from agencies and big companies. Investor mood is firm even if some signals are soft. We plan to buy in steps over 1-3 months, aiming for a return toward typical levels as interest stabilizes, with weakness driven more by short-term trading than the company's outlook.
Primary drivers
- New $6B federal deal adds steady revenue and validates government demand
- Copilot now earns money, pulling in more business across Microsoft products
- Price looks beaten down while investor mood stays positive overall
- Large corporate cloud spending stays resilient, supporting Azures growth
How it played out
MSFT: target missed after a 9.6% peak gain
Lyra published MSFT on 2025-09-03 at 504.29, looking for 17% growth toward 588.91. The thesis pointed to a $6B federal deal, Copilot revenue across Microsoft products, a price that looked beaten down, positive investor mood, and resilient large-company cloud spending that supported Azure growth.
Inside the window, MSFT rose to 552.69 on 2025-10-28, a 9.6% peak gain. That stayed below the 588.91 target. It ended the window at 490. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose for a time, but it never reached the target and finished below the publication price.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $77.7 billion, up 18%, and Azure and other cloud services revenue up 40%. On 2025-10-28, OpenAI and Microsoft announced a new agreement, with Microsoft retaining a 27% stake.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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