Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from September 3, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 2, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 3, 2025
Microsoft looks temporarily out of favor, but its business remains strong. On 2025-09-03 it won a $6B government contract and expanded Copilot, showing steady demand from agencies and big companies. Investor mood is firm even if some signals are soft. We plan to buy in steps over 1-3 months, aiming for a return toward typical levels as interest stabilizes, with weakness driven more by short-term trading than the company's outlook.
Primary drivers
- New $6B federal deal adds steady revenue and validates government demand
- Copilot now earns money, pulling in more business across Microsoft products
- Price looks beaten down while investor mood stays positive overall
- Large corporate cloud spending stays resilient, supporting Azures growth
How it played out
MSFT: target missed after a 9.6% peak gain
Lyra published MSFT on 2025-09-03 at 504.29, looking for 17% growth toward 588.91. The thesis pointed to a $6B federal deal, Copilot revenue across Microsoft products, a price that looked beaten down, positive investor mood, and resilient large-company cloud spending that supported Azure growth.
Inside the window, MSFT rose to 552.69 on 2025-10-28, a 9.6% peak gain. That stayed below the 588.91 target. It ended the window at 490. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose for a time, but it never reached the target and finished below the publication price.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $77.7 billion, up 18%, and Azure and other cloud services revenue up 40%. On 2025-10-28, OpenAI and Microsoft announced a new agreement, with Microsoft retaining a 27% stake.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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