Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from March 6, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 4, 2026 — +4.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$402.00 – $410.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$410.62Published — price the day we called it

$464.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$466.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$428.05Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 87 days.

At window close

+4.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+12.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$428.05

last close inside the window, ended June 4, 2026

Peak price

$466.32

peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published March 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$464.00

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$402.00 – $410.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$410.62

published March 6, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is a strong, reliable leader in cloud and AI. Right now its shares have run up, so the safer plan is to wait for a small dip before buying. Over the next few months, big companies like Microsoft often hold value better than smaller names, so it is a steady choice even if short-term gains may be moderate.

Primary drivers

Clear advantage in AI and cloud attracts investors
Healthy trend makes buying on dips sensible
Large size means easier buying and selling
Reliable enterprise software helps steady returns

How it played out

MSFT: target reached in 87 days

Lyra published MSFT at $410.62 on 2026-03-06 with a short-term view for 13% growth. The thesis pointed to cloud and artificial intelligence leadership, a healthy trend that made dips attractive, the ease of trading a large company, and reliable enterprise software as support for steadier returns.

Inside the window, MSFT reached a peak of $466.32 on 2026-06-01, above the $464 target. It got there in 87 days. The window ended on 2026-06-04 at $428.05, below the peak but still above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-05-01, Microsoft reported results for the quarter ending 2026-03-31. Revenue rose 18%, and Microsoft Cloud revenue grew 29% to $54.5 billion. On 2026-06-02, Microsoft announced in-house artificial intelligence models at Build 2026, including MAI-Thinking-1.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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