Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from March 6, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on June 4, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$410.62 Published $464.00 Target $428.05 Window close $466.32 Peak
$402.00 – $410.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$410.62Published — price the day we called it
$464.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$466.32Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$428.05Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 87 days.

Peak price
$466.32
peak on June 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$428.05
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
87
Window
March 6, 2026 – June 4, 2026

The thesis — published March 6, 2026

Predicted growth
+13%
over the measurement window
Target price
$464.00
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$402.00 – $410.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$410.62
published March 6, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft is a strong, reliable leader in cloud and AI. Right now its shares have run up, so the safer plan is to wait for a small dip before buying. Over the next few months, big companies like Microsoft often hold value better than smaller names, so it is a steady choice even if short-term gains may be moderate.

Primary drivers

  • Clear advantage in AI and cloud attracts investors
  • Healthy trend makes buying on dips sensible
  • Large size means easier buying and selling
  • Reliable enterprise software helps steady returns

How it played out

MSFT: target reached in 87 days

Lyra published MSFT at $410.62 on 2026-03-06 with a short-term view for 13% growth. The thesis pointed to cloud and artificial intelligence leadership, a healthy trend that made dips attractive, the ease of trading a large company, and reliable enterprise software as support for steadier returns.

Inside the window, MSFT reached a peak of $466.32 on 2026-06-01, above the $464 target. It got there in 87 days. The window ended on 2026-06-04 at $428.05, below the peak but still above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-05-01, Microsoft reported results for the quarter ending 2026-03-31. Revenue rose 18%, and Microsoft Cloud revenue grew 29% to $54.5 billion. On 2026-06-02, Microsoft announced in-house artificial intelligence models at Build 2026, including MAI-Thinking-1.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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