Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from May 7, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on August 5, 2026 — +14.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$424.39 Published $488.05 Target $487.46 Window close $499.44 Peak
$410.00 – $425.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$424.39Published — price the day we called it
$488.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$499.44Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$487.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 88 days.

At window close
+14.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$487.46
last close inside the window, ended August 5, 2026
Peak price
$499.44
peak on August 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
88

The thesis — published May 7, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$488.05
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$410.00 – $425.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$424.39
published May 7, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft shows steady profit execution, continued demand for its cloud services, and healthy profit margins. Recent headlines about AI compute needs and data-center hiring add weight to demand for cloud infrastructure. Price momentum is not clearly strong yet, so a more cautious exposure near lower prices is preferred while software cash flow cushions capital spending risks.

Primary drivers

  • Repeated profit beats and steady Azure demand
  • AI compute and hiring news supports data-center spending
  • Diverse software revenue and healthy profit margins
  • Recent pullback with momentum not fully confirmed

How it played out

MSFT: target reached in 88 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis at $424.39, with 15% expected growth and a $488.05 target. The thesis pointed to repeated profit beats, steady Azure demand, data-center spending tied to compute needs and hiring, diverse software revenue, healthy margins, and a recent pullback with momentum not yet confirmed.

Inside the window, MSFT reached the target in 88 days. It peaked at $499.44 on August 4, a 17.7% gain. The stock ended the window at $487.46, below the target but above the publication price. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 29, 2026, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $90.0 billion, up 18%, while Azure and other cloud services revenue rose 43%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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