Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from August 26, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 24, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 26, 2025
Microsoft looks oversold, yet interest in the stock remains solid. The company is seeing real demand from AI features like Copilot and Azure, and industry reports point to more work shifting to AI and online channels. Some price signals still lean negative, so buy in steps. A return toward the prior price area where shares stalled is reasonable over the next quarter. Main risks are the economy and how fast customers spend on AI.
Primary drivers
- Shares look beaten down while overall investor mood stays positive right now
- Earning more from AI tools like Copilot and Azure as usage grows
- One of the stronger big tech names when the overall market is healthy
- Recent average price likely to steady soon, easing pressure on shares
How it played out
MSFT: target missed after a 10.1% peak gain
Lyra published MSFT at 501.98 on 2025-08-26, with 18% expected growth toward 591.22 by 2025-11-24. The thesis pointed to shares looking beaten down while investor mood stayed positive, demand from Copilot and Azure, strength among big technology names, and recent average-price pressure easing.
Inside the window, MSFT rose to a 552.69 peak on 2025-10-28. That was a 10.1% gain, but it stayed below the 591.22 target. It never got there. By 2025-11-24, the stock ended at 474. The thesis partially played out on the rally, but the target was missed and the close was below the publication price.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $77.7 billion and earnings of $3.72 per share. On 2025-10-28, Microsoft and OpenAI announced a new agreement under which Microsoft held a 27% stake in OpenAI Group PBC.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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