Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from February 25, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 26, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$394.14 Published $441.44 Target $416.03 Window close $433.64 Peak
$380.00 – $398.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$394.14Published — price the day we called it
$441.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$433.64Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$416.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$433.64
peak on April 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+10%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$416.03
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 25, 2026 – May 26, 2026

The thesis — published February 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$441.44
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$380.00 – $398.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$394.14
published February 25, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft fits a short-term plan to buy more when the price dips because big companies are starting to use its AI tools in real work settings. A recent announcement shows its AI platform being rolled out widely, which supports continued demand. The stock pulled back recently, so buy carefully in a defined zone and wait for steadier price improvement before adding.

Primary drivers

  • Wider use of Microsoft's AI tools by big companies suggests steady demand
  • Positive tech news, like chip earnings, can lift major tech stocks including Microsoft
  • Regular subscription and cloud revenue help soften big price drops
  • Stock has room to recover after a recent pullback, so patience helps

How it played out

MSFT: target was not reached

Lyra published MSFT at 394.14 on 2026-02-25 with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to wider company use of Microsoft's artificial intelligence tools, supportive tech news, subscription and cloud revenue, and room to recover after a pullback. The target was 441.44.

Inside the window, MSFT rose to 433.64 on 2026-04-22, a 10% peak gain. That stayed below the target. It ended the window at 416.03 on 2026-05-26. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose, but the published target was never reached.

What happened during the window

On April 28, Axios reported that OpenAI's revised Microsoft pact let it sell models across multiple cloud platforms while Microsoft remained a partner. This was a reported company relationship change, not a stated cause of the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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