Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from February 25, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 26, 2026 — +5.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$380.00 – $398.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$394.14Published — price the day we called it

$441.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$433.64Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$416.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 83% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+5.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$416.03

last close inside the window, ended May 26, 2026

Peak price

$433.64

peak on April 22, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 25, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$441.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$380.00 – $398.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$394.14

published February 25, 2026

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft fits a short-term plan to buy more when the price dips because big companies are starting to use its AI tools in real work settings. A recent announcement shows its AI platform being rolled out widely, which supports continued demand. The stock pulled back recently, so buy carefully in a defined zone and wait for steadier price improvement before adding.

Primary drivers

Wider use of Microsoft's AI tools by big companies suggests steady demand
Positive tech news, like chip earnings, can lift major tech stocks including Microsoft
Regular subscription and cloud revenue help soften big price drops
Stock has room to recover after a recent pullback, so patience helps

How it played out

MSFT: target was not reached

Lyra published MSFT at 394.14 on 2026-02-25 with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to wider company use of Microsoft's artificial intelligence tools, supportive tech news, subscription and cloud revenue, and room to recover after a pullback. The target was 441.44.

Inside the window, MSFT rose to 433.64 on 2026-04-22, a 10% peak gain. That stayed below the target. It ended the window at 416.03 on 2026-05-26. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose, but the published target was never reached.

What happened during the window

On April 28, Axios reported that OpenAI's revised Microsoft pact let it sell models across multiple cloud platforms while Microsoft remained a partner. This was a reported company relationship change, not a stated cause of the stock move.

OpenAI's new Microsoft deal opens door to Amazon

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MSFT signals