Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from September 12, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 11, 2025 — -4.5% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 57% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 12, 2025
Microsoft looks steady and growing. Europe easing pressure on how it sells Teams removes a worry. OpenAI shifting to a money-making model should help Azure and Copilot bring in more cash. The price trend has been strong even though one common chart signal looks mixed. Over the next three months, the stock could drift higher as more customers add AI features and cloud use expands.
Primary drivers
- EU separating Teams lowers the risk of rule-related trouble
- OpenAI's new setup helps Microsoft earn more from AI tools
- Steady buying interest as the price trend moves higher
- More customers use Azure AI and Copilot, boosting demand
How it played out
MSFT: target stayed out of reach
Lyra published MSFT at 506.05 on 2025-09-12 with 16% expected growth. The thesis pointed to lower rule-related risk in Europe after Teams separation, Microsoft earning more from artificial intelligence tools through OpenAI's new setup, steady buying interest, and more Azure artificial intelligence and Copilot demand.
Inside the window, MSFT peaked at 552.69 on 2025-10-28, a 9.2% gain. It stayed below the 585.92 target and never reached it. By 2025-12-11, it ended at 483.47. The thesis partly played out on the early rise, but the full target missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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