Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from July 25, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 23, 2025 — +2.1% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 25, 2025
Microsoft’s share price has held in a tight range while more investors step in ahead of the July 30 earnings report. Copilot already generates over $2 billion in yearly sales, and the Azure cloud business still grows more than 20 % a year. A $1.2 billion cloud contract won by Google shows companies are spending heavily, a trend that should also lift Azure. We expect the stock could approach $600 within the next three months as AI income picks up.
Primary drivers
- Copilot brings in over $2 billion a year, and its money-making speed keeps accelerating
- Upcoming July 30 earnings report could be the spark that pulls in a fresh wave of buyers
- Share price has begun to tick up after weeks of sideways action, signaling renewed interest
- Google’s $1.2 billion cloud deal proves companies are spending big, a tailwind for Azure
How it played out
MSFT: target was not reached
Lyra published MSFT at $509.09 on 2025-07-25 with an 18% expected gain over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to Copilot sales above $2 billion a year, Azure growth of more than 20% a year, the July 30 earnings report, recent sideways trading, and cloud spending as reasons the stock could approach $600 within three months.
Inside the window, MSFT rose to a peak of $553.50 on 2025-07-31, a gain of 8.7%. It stayed below the $598.62 target. By 2025-10-23, it ended at $519.59. The thesis partly played out, because the stock rose, but the target was never reached.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-30, Microsoft reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $76.4 billion and net income of $27.2 billion. The Verge also reported Azure revenue growth of 39% year over year. On 2025-07-30, The Guardian reported that Microsoft expected capital spending to top $100 billion in the next fiscal year.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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