Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from July 25, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 23, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 48% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 25, 2025
Microsoft’s share price has held in a tight range while more investors step in ahead of the July 30 earnings report. Copilot already generates over $2 billion in yearly sales, and the Azure cloud business still grows more than 20 % a year. A $1.2 billion cloud contract won by Google shows companies are spending heavily, a trend that should also lift Azure. We expect the stock could approach $600 within the next three months as AI income picks up.
Primary drivers
- Copilot brings in over $2 billion a year, and its money-making speed keeps accelerating
- Upcoming July 30 earnings report could be the spark that pulls in a fresh wave of buyers
- Share price has begun to tick up after weeks of sideways action, signaling renewed interest
- Google’s $1.2 billion cloud deal proves companies are spending big, a tailwind for Azure
How it played out
MSFT: target was not reached
Lyra published MSFT at $509.09 on 2025-07-25 with an 18% expected gain over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to Copilot sales above $2 billion a year, Azure growth of more than 20% a year, the July 30 earnings report, recent sideways trading, and cloud spending as reasons the stock could approach $600 within three months.
Inside the window, MSFT rose to a peak of $553.50 on 2025-07-31, a gain of 8.7%. It stayed below the $598.62 target. By 2025-10-23, it ended at $519.59. The thesis partly played out, because the stock rose, but the target was never reached.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-30, Microsoft reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $76.4 billion and net income of $27.2 billion. The Verge also reported Azure revenue growth of 39% year over year. On 2025-07-30, The Guardian reported that Microsoft expected capital spending to top $100 billion in the next fiscal year.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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