Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from September 26, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 25, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 26, 2025
Microsoft's share price looks beaten down, and buyer interest is starting to improve. A fresh analyst report praised its cloud (Azure), new AI helpers, and partnership with OpenAI, suggesting demand stays solid. Feelings in the market are positive even as results need time to catch up, so this is a short-term bounce idea toward the recent average price. A steady 0-3 month recovery is reasonable as cloud budgets stabilize.
Primary drivers
- Price looks washed out while buying interest shows signs of improving
- New analyst praise for Azure, AI tools, and the OpenAI partnership
- Market optimism is ahead of results, creating a near-term bounce setup
- Growing use of Azure and Copilot can lift sales and profits over time
How it played out
MSFT: target was not reached inside the window
Lyra published MSFT on 2025-09-26 at 512.77 as a short-term bounce idea. The thesis expected 20% growth toward 614.17. It pointed to a washed-out price, improving buyer interest, analyst praise for Azure, artificial intelligence tools and the OpenAI partnership, market optimism ahead of results, and wider use of Azure and Copilot over time.
Inside the window from 2025-09-26 to 2025-12-25, MSFT rose to a peak of 552.69 on 2025-10-28, up 7.8%. It stayed below 614.17 and never reached the target. It ended at 488.02. The thesis partially played out, but the target missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $77.7 billion and earnings of $3.72 per share, while Azure grew about 40%. On 2025-11-18, Microsoft announced a partnership with Anthropic and Nvidia in which Anthropic committed to buying $30 billion of Azure computing capacity, while Microsoft said it would invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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