Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from September 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 30, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$498.13 – $508.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$505.74Published — price the day we called it

$605.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$552.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$492.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$552.69

peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+9.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$492.01

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 1, 2025 – November 30, 2025

The thesis — published September 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$605.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$498.13 – $508.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$505.74

published September 1, 2025

Confidence

65%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft looks temporarily out of favor even though it is a leader in AI and cloud services. A very low short-term reading suggests the slide may be overdone, so a bounce is possible. Industry voices say the biggest tech firms could shape TV and distribution, broadening Microsoft's reach, while diversified chip plans reduce supply risks. The long-run demand for AI and cloud adds a safety net for a 3-month buy-the-dip idea.

Primary drivers

Sharp pullback hints at a short-term rebound in a high-quality company.
Strong edge in AI and cloud keeps customers and spending tied to Microsoft.
Big Tech likely to shape TV and distribution, extending Microsoft's reach.
More chip sources can reduce bottlenecks and keep products and services on track.

How it played out

MSFT: the target was not reached

Lyra published MSFT on 2025-09-01 at 505.74, with a 20% expected gain to 605.76. The thesis pointed to a sharp pullback, Microsoft's edge in artificial intelligence and cloud, possible Big Tech influence in TV and distribution, and more chip sources that could reduce bottlenecks.

Inside the window, MSFT rose to 552.69 on 2025-10-28, a 9.3% peak gain. It stayed below 605.76 and never reached the target. By 2025-11-30, it ended at 492.01. The bounce happened, but it was not large enough. The published thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported revenue of $77.7 billion for the quarter ending in September, according to Business Insider. On 2025-11-18, Anthropic, Nvidia, and Microsoft announced a cloud and compute agreement involving Azure, according to Business Insider.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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