Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from October 21, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 19, 2026 — -10.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$510.09 – $516.07Entry zone — fair-value band

$515.65Published — price the day we called it

$607.33Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$552.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$459.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 40% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-10.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$459.86

last close inside the window, ended January 19, 2026

Peak price

$552.69

peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published October 21, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$607.33

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$510.09 – $516.07

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$515.65

published October 21, 2025

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock has slid and may be set for a short-term bounce. Microsoft is a leader in AI for businesses, and a key software market could grow past $100B by 2033, supporting steady demand. We want signs that the drop is easing and the recent average price turns upward before adding. Over the next 0-3 months, a recovery looks possible as buyers return and Azure keeps winning share.

Primary drivers

Microsoft is widely viewed as a leader in AI for large enterprises
The market for app performance tools could exceed $100B by 2033
Shares look beaten down; we are watching for signs buyers return
Azure keeps adding customers, giving Microsoft an extra growth push

How it played out

MSFT: target not reached after early rise

Lyra published MSFT on 2025-10-21 at 515.65 as a short-term bounce thesis. The expected growth was 18%. The thesis pointed to Microsoft as a leader in artificial intelligence for large enterprises, a software market that could grow past $100B by 2033, signs that buyers might return, and Azure adding customers.

Inside the window, MSFT rose to 552.69 on 2025-10-28, a 7.2% peak gain. It stayed below the 607.33 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-19, it ended at 459.86. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-28, Microsoft and OpenAI announced a new agreement, with Microsoft retaining a 27% stake in OpenAI Group PBC. On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported first-quarter earnings of $3.72 per share and revenue of $77.7bn, and the article said Azure grew by about 40%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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