Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from October 21, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on January 19, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 40% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published October 21, 2025
The stock has slid and may be set for a short-term bounce. Microsoft is a leader in AI for businesses, and a key software market could grow past $100B by 2033, supporting steady demand. We want signs that the drop is easing and the recent average price turns upward before adding. Over the next 0-3 months, a recovery looks possible as buyers return and Azure keeps winning share.
Primary drivers
- Microsoft is widely viewed as a leader in AI for large enterprises
- The market for app performance tools could exceed $100B by 2033
- Shares look beaten down; we are watching for signs buyers return
- Azure keeps adding customers, giving Microsoft an extra growth push
How it played out
MSFT: target not reached after early rise
Lyra published MSFT on 2025-10-21 at 515.65 as a short-term bounce thesis. The expected growth was 18%. The thesis pointed to Microsoft as a leader in artificial intelligence for large enterprises, a software market that could grow past $100B by 2033, signs that buyers might return, and Azure adding customers.
Inside the window, MSFT rose to 552.69 on 2025-10-28, a 7.2% peak gain. It stayed below the 607.33 target and never reached it. By 2026-01-19, it ended at 459.86. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-28, Microsoft and OpenAI announced a new agreement, with Microsoft retaining a 27% stake in OpenAI Group PBC. On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported first-quarter earnings of $3.72 per share and revenue of $77.7bn, and the article said Azure grew by about 40%.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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