Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from September 19, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 18, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 19, 2025
Microsoft looks strong and widely traded. Buying interest is healthy, and the price action suggests it can keep climbing. Lower rates after the Fed cut help big tech, and companies are pouring money into AI. News noted the Nasdaq hitting new highs as AI spending grows, supporting Azure and Copilot profits. Consider buying near $510-$514 and adding if it moves over $520 on heavier trading.
Primary drivers
- Strong buying and steady upward price action point to continued strength
- Lower rates and heavy AI spending in the news are boosting big tech
- Azure cloud and Copilot have room to bring in more subscription dollars
- As a top index name, it draws more money when markets favor winners
How it played out
MSFT: target was not reached
Lyra published MSFT on 2025-09-19 at $512.46. The thesis expected 18% growth and pointed to healthy buying, steady upward price action, lower rates, heavy artificial intelligence spending, Azure, Copilot, and index flows when markets favored large winners.
Inside the window, MSFT peaked at $552.69 on 2025-10-28, with a 7.8% gain. That was below the $603.57 target. It never reached the target. By 2025-12-18, it ended at $483.98. The thesis partially played out early, but it missed the published target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported FY26 Q1 results, according to Windows Central. On 2025-11-18, Business Insider reported that Microsoft, Nvidia, and Anthropic announced a partnership tied to Azure compute capacity.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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