Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from November 3, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$522.72 Published $615.66 Target $430.29 Window close $523.98 Peak
$515.07 – $523.04Entry zone — fair-value band
$522.72Published — price the day we called it
$615.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$523.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$430.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 1% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$523.98
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$430.29
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
November 3, 2025 – February 1, 2026

The thesis — published November 3, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$615.66
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$515.07 – $523.04
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$522.72
published November 3, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Big companies are still spending on AI, and cloud leaders are stepping up activity. A huge deal this week linking major cloud players and AI chips suggests demand for building AI tools in the cloud will stay strong. Price action looks healthy, with more buyers stepping in than usual. Risks: the stock is sensitive to economy-wide news and may look pricey, so consider buying in parts and look for strength to return near recent peaks.

Primary drivers

  • Azure and Copilot ride rising demand for practical AI at work globally
  • Price action trends remain positive, attracting steady buyer interest
  • Large cloud providers keep spending on AI, lifting long-term demand
  • Strong, dependable large-cap company that often leads the market

How it played out

MSFT: target was not reached

Lyra published MSFT at 522.72 on 2025-11-03 with an expected gain of 18%. The target was 615.66. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence tools at work, Azure and Copilot, cloud spending, positive price action, and steady buyer interest in a dependable large-cap company.

Inside the window, MSFT peaked at 523.98 on 2025-11-03, a 0.2% gain. It never reached 615.66. By 2026-02-01, it ended at 430.29. The thesis missed. The stock made a small early high, then finished well below the publication price and below the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-18, Microsoft announced a strategic partnership with Anthropic that brought Claude models to Microsoft Foundry. Anthropic also committed to buying Azure compute capacity. On 2026-01-28, Microsoft reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of 81.3 billion and net income of 30.9 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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