Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from August 25, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 23, 2025 — -6.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$505.31 Published $595.15 Target $472.12 Window close $552.69 Peak
$498.13 – $510.09Entry zone — fair-value band
$505.31Published — price the day we called it
$595.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$552.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$472.12Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$472.12
last close inside the window, ended November 23, 2025
Peak price
$552.69
peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$595.15
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$498.13 – $510.09
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$505.31
published August 25, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft looks like a strong, well-run giant that has pulled back, giving a careful entry window. Reports this week say healthcare language AI could reach $16B by 2030, and Microsoft is named a leader, which supports demand for its AI cloud tools. Momentum is still weak, so prefer signs that the wider market is improving or the trend turns up. Strong cash flow supports a potential reset over the next 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Top-tier giant has pulled back, offering a chance to buy quality.
  • Leading in healthcare language AI, boosting demand for its cloud and AI.
  • Clear plan to limit losses if price falls below its recent average.
  • Add shares if many stocks improve and Microsoft's trend turns upward.

How it played out

MSFT: thesis partially played out, target missed

Lyra published MSFT at 505.31 on 2025-08-25, with 18% expected growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to a pulled-back, well-run giant, demand for cloud tools tied to healthcare language artificial intelligence, weak momentum that needed improvement, and strong cash flow that could support a reset over the next 3 months.

Inside the window, MSFT rose to 552.69 on 2025-10-28, a 9.4% peak gain. It stayed below the 595.15 target and never reached it. By 2025-11-23, it ended at 472.12. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-29, Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $77.7 billion and earnings of $3.72 per share. The same report said Azure grew about 40% and that Azure and Microsoft 365 had an outage that day.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Share this receipt

A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MSFT signals