Track record

Merck & Company Inc (MRK) stock forecast — our track record

28 completed MRK stock predictions — wins and misses, nothing deleted. Each forecast was published before the outcome was known.

28
scored MRK calls — every one whose window has closed, nothing deleted
+15.3%
median return at the window close, from the publication price
24 of 28
hit or exceeded the predicted growth
+24.5%
median peak inside the window — peak, not a realized return
Every call, month by monthOne cell per closed signal
Jul ’25 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan ’26 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
24 Target reached
3 Near target
1 Partial
0 Missed

How our MRK forecasts have done

Lyra published 28 MRK stock forecasts from July 1, 2025 onward. Each prediction was released before its outcome was known, then closed and scored after the forecast window ended. Every call used the short term horizon of 0 to 3 months. The last forecast window ended on October 13, 2026, so the full track record covered completed outcomes rather than open calls.

Of the 28 predictions, 27 reached their targets. None missed, while one received partial credit. The average success score was 95.5%, and the average peak gain was 21.5%. Because every forecast used the same short term horizon, there was no medium or long term result to compare. The short term calls also averaged a 95.5% success score.

The best call was published on September 30, 2025. It predicted 12% growth, reached that target in 1 day, and recorded a peak gain of 37.6%. Its success score was 100%. The weakest call was published on July 1, 2025. It predicted 18% growth, while the stock's peak gain was 7.2%. That call received a 50% success score. Overall, the record was strong: nearly every call reached its target, no call was scored as a miss, and the weakest result still received partial credit.

Written from the closed signals below; refreshed when new signals close.

Closed MRK signals

ClosedTimeframePredictedAt closePeak resultOutcomeDays to target
October 13, 2026
September 21, 2026
August 2, 2026
July 30, 2026
July 16, 2026
July 14, 2026
June 16, 2026
June 15, 2026
April 30, 2026
April 8, 2026
March 18, 2026
March 5, 2026
February 16, 2026
February 11, 2026
January 22, 2026
January 19, 2026
December 30, 2025
December 29, 2025
December 22, 2025
December 9, 2025
December 4, 2025
November 30, 2025
November 27, 2025
November 19, 2025
November 13, 2025
November 12, 2025
October 21, 2025
September 29, 2025

At close is the return from the publication price to the last close inside the signal’s measurement window — what the window actually delivered. Peak result is the highest point inside that window, labelled as peak because it is not a realized return.

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Every published signal is scored against what the stock actually did — the same way MRK was. No deleted misses, no cherry-picking.