Track record · closed signal

Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) — closed signal from November 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 11, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MRK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$91.83 Published $101.98 Target $119.31 Window close $122.66 Peak
$89.27 – $90.64Entry zone — fair-value band
$91.83Published — price the day we called it
$101.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$122.66Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$119.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 12 days.

Peak price
$122.66
peak on February 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+33.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$119.31
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
12
Window
November 13, 2025 – February 11, 2026

The thesis — published November 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$101.98
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$89.27 – $90.64
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$91.83
published November 13, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Merck is getting positive attention because a late-stage study showed its new oral drug cut bad cholesterol meaningfully, which cheered investors. A major bank also started coverage with a positive view. The stock has been firm, but it ran up fast, so buying small pullbacks makes sense. Over the next 0-3 months, steady Keytruda and a clear pipeline could gently lift the stock, with healthcare offering a steadier ride.

Primary drivers

  • Strong late-stage results for an oral drug that lowered bad cholesterol.
  • Scotiabank began coverage with a positive rating, boosting confidence.
  • Buying interest is higher than usual, improving near-term price momentum.
  • Healthcare stocks often help steady a portfolio when markets get choppy.

How it played out

MRK: target reached in 12 days

Lyra published MRK on 2025-11-13 at $91.83 with 12% expected growth over the short term. The thesis pointed to strong late-stage results for an oral cholesterol drug, positive new Scotiabank coverage, higher-than-usual buying interest, steady Keytruda, and a clearer pipeline.

Inside the window, MRK reached the $101.98 target in 12 days. It later peaked at $122.66 on 2026-02-06, a 33.6% gain, and ended the window at $119.31. The thesis played out. The stock did more than the published setup required.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-14, Merck agreed to buy Cidara Therapeutics in an all-cash deal valued at $9.2 billion. On 2026-02-03, Merck reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $16.4 billion and gave 2026 revenue guidance of $65.5 billion to $67.0 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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