Track record · closed signal

Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) — closed signal from November 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 11, 2026 — +29.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MRK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$89.27 – $90.64Entry zone — fair-value band

$91.83Published — price the day we called it

$101.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$122.66Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$119.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 12 days.

At window close

+29.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+33.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$119.31

last close inside the window, ended February 11, 2026

Peak price

$122.66

peak on February 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published November 13, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$101.98

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$89.27 – $90.64

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$91.83

published November 13, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Merck is getting positive attention because a late-stage study showed its new oral drug cut bad cholesterol meaningfully, which cheered investors. A major bank also started coverage with a positive view. The stock has been firm, but it ran up fast, so buying small pullbacks makes sense. Over the next 0-3 months, steady Keytruda and a clear pipeline could gently lift the stock, with healthcare offering a steadier ride.

Primary drivers

Strong late-stage results for an oral drug that lowered bad cholesterol.
Scotiabank began coverage with a positive rating, boosting confidence.
Buying interest is higher than usual, improving near-term price momentum.
Healthcare stocks often help steady a portfolio when markets get choppy.

How it played out

MRK: target reached in 12 days

Lyra published MRK on 2025-11-13 at $91.83 with 12% expected growth over the short term. The thesis pointed to strong late-stage results for an oral cholesterol drug, positive new Scotiabank coverage, higher-than-usual buying interest, steady Keytruda, and a clearer pipeline.

Inside the window, MRK reached the $101.98 target in 12 days. It later peaked at $122.66 on 2026-02-06, a 33.6% gain, and ended the window at $119.31. The thesis played out. The stock did more than the published setup required.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-14, Merck agreed to buy Cidara Therapeutics in an all-cash deal valued at $9.2 billion. On 2026-02-03, Merck reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $16.4 billion and gave 2026 revenue guidance of $65.5 billion to $67.0 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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