Track record · closed signal

Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) — closed signal from November 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on February 16, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MRK price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$90.45 – $93.40Entry zone — fair-value band

$94.73Published — price the day we called it

$105.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$123.33Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$121.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 36 days.

Peak price

$123.33

peak on February 13, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+30.2%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$121.41

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

November 18, 2025 – February 16, 2026

The thesis — published November 18, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$105.19

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$90.45 – $93.40

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$94.73

published November 18, 2025

Confidence

60%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

WINREVAIR, a new drug in testing, hit its main goal in a mid-stage study on 11/18, lifting investor mood and interest. Our cash-flow estimate says the stock could be worth more than today. Short term, the price ran hot after the news, so waiting for dips over the next zero to three months makes sense. Merck's stable, defensive profile helps balance risk, but the price may pause and settle before the next leg higher.

Primary drivers

Study success for WINREVAIR improves the outlook for future medicines
Price is strong short term, but looks hot; patience can improve entries
Cash-flow valuation work points to more upside than the market implies
Big, stable company profile can steady a portfolio during rough markets

How it played out

MRK: target reached in 36 days

Lyra published MRK at $94.73 on 2025-11-18 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to WINREVAIR study success, a stock that looked hot in the short term, cash-flow work that implied more upside, and Merck's stable, defensive profile.

Inside the window, MRK reached the $105.19 target in 36 days. It later peaked at $123.33 on 2026-02-13, a 30.2% gain. The stock ended the window at $121.41. The published thesis played out, and the move went well past the stated target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-18, Merck said a Phase 2 WINREVAIR study had succeeded, and that it planned to proceed with a Phase 3 study. On 2026-02-03, Merck reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $16.4 billion and issued 2026 revenue guidance of $65.5 billion to $67.0 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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