American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) stock forecast — our track record

Lyra published 10 stock forecasts for AAL beginning August 22, 2025. All 10 predictions used the short term horizon (0 to 3 months), and every forecast was published before its outcome was known. All calls were closed and scored by May 5, 2026, giving the public a completed track record rather than a collection of open forecasts.

Four of the 10 forecasts reached their targets. Six received partial credit, and none of them missed. The average success score was 70%. Because every call used the same short term horizon, there was no comparison with medium term or long term results. Across all completed calls, the average peak gain was 20.3%, while the scoring still distinguished between forecasts that fully reached their stated target and those that captured only part of the predicted move.

The best call was published on October 2, 2025. It predicted 22% growth, and the stock recorded a peak gain of 43.4%. The target was reached after 39 days, and the call received a 100% success score. The worst call was published on September 3, 2025. It predicted 24% growth, but the stock's peak gain was 2.3%. The target was not reached, and the call received a 50% success score. Overall, the record was mixed but positive: four targets were reached, six calls earned partial credit, and there were no outright misses.