American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) — closed signal from September 12, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 11, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published September 12, 2025
This is a short-term bet that AAL could bounce after a rough patch. US ticket prices rose 3.3% compared to last year, which helps revenue. A well-known value screen suggests the stock looks cheap. Many investors are upbeat, but high debt and fuel costs add risk. Plan to buy near recent lows, keep losses small, and aim for a 3-month climb if prices and bookings hold up and costs do not worsen.
Primary drivers
- US airfares rose 3.3% vs last year, helping airlines keep prices firm.
- Market signs suggest the stock may be due for a near-term rebound.
- A respected value check says the shares look inexpensive right now.
- High jet fuel costs and heavy debt could squeeze profits and cash.
How it played out
AAL: target missed after an 18.4% peak gain
Lyra published AAL at $12.96 on 2025-09-12 as a short-term bounce thesis. It expected 24% growth toward $16.07. The thesis pointed to US airfares rising 3.3% from last year, signs of a near-term rebound, a value screen that made the shares look inexpensive, and risks from jet fuel costs and heavy debt.
Inside the window, AAL rose but stayed below the target. The peak was $15.35 on 2025-12-11, with an 18.4% gain. It never reached $16.07. The window ended at $14.96. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was missed.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-23, American Airlines reported a third-quarter loss of $114 million, or 17 cents per share, and revenue of $13.69 billion. It also raised its full-year 2025 profit outlook to 65 to 95 cents per share.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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