Track record · closed signal

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) — closed signal from September 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 4, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AAL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.18 Published $15.82 Target $14.34 Window close $14.67 Peak
$12.80 – $13.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.18Published — price the day we called it
$15.82Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$14.67Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$14.34Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 57% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$14.67
peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$14.34
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 5, 2025 – December 4, 2025

The thesis — published September 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$15.82
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.80 – $13.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.18
published September 5, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock looks beaten down, and many investors still feel positive, which can set up a short-term rebound. On Sept. 11, company leaders speak at a well-known investor conference that could shape the market's view. Fuel costs and travel demand remain key risks, and recent price strength is weak. Use a clear plan for entries and exits; if the message is steady, shares could recover toward earlier price levels over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks very oversold after a drop; investor mood remains upbeat
  • Sept. 11 management talk at a major investor event may sway views
  • Despite the pullback, buying interest stayed relatively strong
  • Jet fuel costs and uneven travel demand could quickly change results

How it played out

AAL: target was not reached

Lyra published AAL at $13.18 on 2025-09-05 with an expected 20% gain toward $15.82. The thesis pointed to an oversold stock, upbeat investor mood, buying interest after the pullback, and a Sept. 11 management appearance. It also named jet fuel costs and uneven travel demand as risks.

Inside the window, AAL rose but never reached the target. The peak was $14.67 on 2025-12-04, with an 11.3% gain. It ended at $14.34. The thesis partly played out because the stock recovered, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 23, 2025, American Airlines reported a third-quarter loss of $114 million, or 17 cents per share, and revenue of $13.69 billion. The company also raised its full-year 2025 profit outlook to 65 to 95 cents per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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