XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from August 27, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 25, 2025 — +7.6% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 27, 2025
XP looks like a value-friendly idea with a price trying to work higher. Recent quarterly results showed profit per share was solid even though sales lagged (2025-08-20). Zacks gave it their top rank and an A for value (2025-08-25). Trading action suggests growing buyer interest, and short interest near 7% (2025-08-20) adds risk but could boost gains. Buying around $16.50-$17.00 aims for prior highs within 0-3 months.
Primary drivers
- Profit per share beat views even though sales trailed
- Top value rating from Zacks on 2025-08-25
- Buying interest looks stronger than selling lately
- Many are betting against it; rising prices could force buys
How it played out
XP: the thesis partly played out but missed the target
Lyra published XP at $16.70 on 2025-08-27 with expected growth of 27%. The thesis pointed to a profit per share beat even though sales trailed, a top value rating from Zacks on 2025-08-25, stronger buying interest than selling, and short interest near 7% as a risk that could also support gains.
Inside the 2025-08-27 to 2025-11-25 window, XP rose to a peak of $20.15 on 2025-09-17. That was a 20.7% gain, but it stayed below the $20.99 target. It ended at $17.97. The call partly worked, but the target was not reached.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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