Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corporation (APP) — closed signal from August 27, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 25, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$466.89 Published $569.60 Target $556.03 Window close $745.61 Peak
$455.00 – $470.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$466.89Published — price the day we called it
$569.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$745.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$556.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

Peak price
$745.61
peak on September 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+59.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$556.03
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
14
Window
August 27, 2025 – November 25, 2025

The thesis — published August 27, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$569.60
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$455.00 – $470.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$466.89
published August 27, 2025
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin is riding a strong uptrend, and small pullbacks may be chances to buy. On 2025-08-27 it was named a top affordable growth pick for both expansion and profits, and the 2025-08-25 index exclusion did not change the story. Recent buying strength and a rising recent average price suggest the trend can continue. Buying $455-$470 aims to benefit as AI ad tech spending and profits build soon.

Primary drivers

  • Named a top affordable growth pick on 2025-08-27 for strong expansion
  • Recent buying signals and rising recent average price back the uptrend
  • AI-powered ad tools are helping the business make more money
  • Not added to the S&P 500, creating brief dips that buyers have used

How it played out

APP: target reached in 14 days

Lyra published APP on 2025-08-27 at 466.89, with expected growth of 22% and a target of 569.60. The thesis pointed to a strong uptrend, recent buying signals, a rising recent average price, artificial-intelligence ad tools, and a 2025-08-25 index exclusion that it said had created brief dips buyers had used.

Inside the window, APP reached the target in 14 days. It later peaked at 745.61 on 2025-09-29, for a peak gain of 59.7%. By 2025-11-25 it had ended at 556.03, below the target. The published thesis played out early, then gave back part of the move.

What happened during the window

On September 5, 2025, S&P Dow Jones Indices said AppLovin would join the S&P 500 before the open on September 22, 2025. On November 5, 2025, Investors.com reported that AppLovin posted third-quarter earnings of $2.45 per share on revenue of $1.41 billion and gave fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $1.59 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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