Track record · closed signal

AppLovin Corporation (APP) — closed signal from August 27, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 25, 2025 — +19.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$455.00 – $470.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$466.89Published — price the day we called it

$569.60Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$745.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$556.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

At window close

+19.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+59.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$556.03

last close inside the window, ended November 25, 2025

Peak price

$745.61

peak on September 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published August 27, 2025

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$569.60

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$455.00 – $470.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$466.89

published August 27, 2025

Confidence

79%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

AppLovin is riding a strong uptrend, and small pullbacks may be chances to buy. On 2025-08-27 it was named a top affordable growth pick for both expansion and profits, and the 2025-08-25 index exclusion did not change the story. Recent buying strength and a rising recent average price suggest the trend can continue. Buying $455-$470 aims to benefit as AI ad tech spending and profits build soon.

Primary drivers

Named a top affordable growth pick on 2025-08-27 for strong expansion
Recent buying signals and rising recent average price back the uptrend
AI-powered ad tools are helping the business make more money
Not added to the S&P 500, creating brief dips that buyers have used

How it played out

APP: target reached in 14 days

Lyra published APP on 2025-08-27 at 466.89, with expected growth of 22% and a target of 569.60. The thesis pointed to a strong uptrend, recent buying signals, a rising recent average price, artificial-intelligence ad tools, and a 2025-08-25 index exclusion that it said had created brief dips buyers had used.

Inside the window, APP reached the target in 14 days. It later peaked at 745.61 on 2025-09-29, for a peak gain of 59.7%. By 2025-11-25 it had ended at 556.03, below the target. The published thesis played out early, then gave back part of the move.

What happened during the window

On September 5, 2025, S&P Dow Jones Indices said AppLovin would join the S&P 500 before the open on September 22, 2025. On November 5, 2025, Investors.com reported that AppLovin posted third-quarter earnings of $2.45 per share on revenue of $1.41 billion and gave fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $1.59 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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