XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from August 26, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 24, 2025 — +6.3% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 22 days.
The thesis — published August 26, 2025
XP looks reasonably priced and is gaining attention. It has a top third party rating and solid value marks. Last quarter, profit per share beat expectations even though sales were a bit weak. Investor mood is upbeat, and prices are calming, which could allow a bounce as Brazil's economy steadies. Use small positions for 0-3 months; add only if the recent average price turns up and lots more people are buying than usual. Watch currency and competition.
Primary drivers
- Top rating from Zacks and shares look inexpensive versus earnings power
- Profit per share beat estimates even though sales came in a bit light
- Investor mood is improving, and the stock's trend looks to be healing
- Will add only after the recent average price clearly turns upward
How it played out
XP: target reached in 22 days
Lyra published XP on 2025-08-26 at 16.54 with 16% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a top third party rating, inexpensive shares versus earnings power, a profit per share beat despite lighter sales, improving investor mood, and a trend that looked to be healing. It also said adding depended on the recent average price turning upward.
Inside the window from 2025-08-26 to 2025-11-24, XP reached the 18.99 target in 22 days. It peaked at 20.15 on 2025-09-17, a 21.8% gain. It ended at 17.58. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.