XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from August 26, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 24, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 22 days.
The thesis — published August 26, 2025
XP looks reasonably priced and is gaining attention. It has a top third party rating and solid value marks. Last quarter, profit per share beat expectations even though sales were a bit weak. Investor mood is upbeat, and prices are calming, which could allow a bounce as Brazil's economy steadies. Use small positions for 0-3 months; add only if the recent average price turns up and lots more people are buying than usual. Watch currency and competition.
Primary drivers
- Top rating from Zacks and shares look inexpensive versus earnings power
- Profit per share beat estimates even though sales came in a bit light
- Investor mood is improving, and the stock's trend looks to be healing
- Will add only after the recent average price clearly turns upward
How it played out
XP: target reached in 22 days
Lyra published XP on 2025-08-26 at 16.54 with 16% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a top third party rating, inexpensive shares versus earnings power, a profit per share beat despite lighter sales, improving investor mood, and a trend that looked to be healing. It also said adding depended on the recent average price turning upward.
Inside the window from 2025-08-26 to 2025-11-24, XP reached the 18.99 target in 22 days. It peaked at 20.15 on 2025-09-17, a 21.8% gain. It ended at 17.58. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.