Track record · closed signal

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) — closed signal from August 26, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 24, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

IBM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$241.35 Published $276.03 Target $304.12 Window close $324.90 Peak
$236.39 – $239.85Entry zone — fair-value band
$241.35Published — price the day we called it
$276.03Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$324.90Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$304.12Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 30 days.

Peak price
$324.90
peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+34.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$304.12
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
30
Window
August 26, 2025 – November 24, 2025

The thesis — published August 26, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$276.03
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$236.39 – $239.85
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$241.35
published August 26, 2025
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

IBM's price has been strong lately, and there's clear interest with lots more people buying than usual. Fresh news about working with AMD on quantum-focused supercomputing adds a timely story, and IBM is well known in modern workplace tools. Still, its basic numbers are only fair, so this is a shorter-term trade. If the market stays slightly positive, buying on dips in the noted range can work, but trim if energy slows.

Primary drivers

  • Buying interest is stronger than usual, pointing to continued price strength.
  • Partnership with AMD on quantum-focused systems could open new growth paths.
  • Growing demand for tools that help employees work securely and efficiently.
  • Shares have been recent winners, drawing more attention and investment flows.

How it played out

IBM: target reached in 30 days

Lyra published IBM on 2025-08-26 at 241.35 with a short-term thesis for 15% growth. The thesis pointed to stronger than usual buying interest, recent price strength, the AMD quantum-focused systems partnership, and demand for secure workplace tools. It also said the basic numbers were only fair.

Inside the window, IBM reached the 276.03 target in 30 days. The stock kept rising after that and peaked at 324.90 on 2025-11-12, with a 34.6% peak gain. It ended the window at 304.12. The thesis played out and then went further than expected.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-26, IBM and AMD announced a partnership around quantum-centric supercomputing. On 2025-10-22, IBM reported third-quarter revenue of 16.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share of 2.65.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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