Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from August 26, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 24, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$235.39 Published $276.15 Target $283.87 Window close $310.53 Peak
$229.30 – $235.23Entry zone — fair-value band
$235.39Published — price the day we called it
$276.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$310.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$283.87Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

Peak price
$310.53
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+31.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$283.87
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
28
Window
August 26, 2025 – November 24, 2025

The thesis — published August 26, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$276.15
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$229.30 – $235.23
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$235.39
published August 26, 2025
Confidence
90%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Short-term idea for the next 0-3 months. Investor mood is strong, yet the price fell quickly and looks ready to rebound. Fresh news that NVIDIA's new RTX PRO servers are being used alongside TSMC signals steady demand for TSMC's most advanced chip making. Some trends still need time to firm up, but the stock has led when the market is steady. The plan is to target a return toward earlier highs while managing risk tightly.

Primary drivers

  • NVIDIA server news points to steady, growing orders for TSMC's top chips
  • Price pulled back recently, and price strength now appears to improve
  • High trading volume and recent leadership may draw in more buyers
  • A mildly rising market backdrop can help a rebound gain traction

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published TSM as a short-term idea on 2025-08-26 at $235.39. The thesis expected 18% growth and pointed to strong investor mood, a quick price pullback, NVIDIA server news as a demand signal for TSMC's advanced chip making, high trading volume, recent leadership, and a mildly rising market backdrop.

Inside the window from 2025-08-26 to 2025-11-24, TSM reached the $276.15 target in 28 days. It later peaked at $310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 31.9% peak gain. The stock ended the window at $283.87, still above the target. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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