Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from August 25, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 23, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$232.57 Published $277.45 Target $274.32 Window close $310.53 Peak
$227.33 – $233.26Entry zone — fair-value band
$232.57Published — price the day we called it
$277.45Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$310.53Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$274.32Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 29 days.

Peak price
$310.53
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+33.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$274.32
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
29
Window
August 25, 2025 – November 23, 2025

The thesis — published August 25, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$277.45
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$227.33 – $233.26
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$232.57
published August 25, 2025
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC looks like a strong company at a fair entry price. The stock appears beaten down versus its recent average, and buying interest seems to be improving. The company is swapping out China-linked equipment at advanced plants, which should lower political risk. Talk of possible US stakes in chip firms could bring in more investor money. With leading AI chip capacity, the market could value it higher over the next three months.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down versus its recent average, offering a bargain
  • Top-tier chip making for AI, with scarce capacity in high demand
  • Replacing China-linked gear lowers political and supply-chain risk
  • Possible government backing could draw more investor money into chips

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 29 days

Lyra published TSM on 2025-08-25 at 232.57 for a short-term window ending 2025-11-23. The thesis expected 20% growth to 277.45. It pointed to a stock that looked beaten down versus its recent average, improving buying interest, scarce artificial intelligence chip capacity, lower political and supply-chain risk from replacing China-linked gear, and possible government backing for chip firms.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 29 days. It later peaked at 310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 33.5% peak gain. By the end of the window it was 274.32. The thesis played out, even though the close was back below the target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of $14.77 billion. On the same date, MarketWatch reported that TSMC raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to the mid-thirties percentage range.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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