PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) — closed signal from August 24, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 22, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 54% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 24, 2025
PDD is a market favorite going into next week's earnings. The price has been strong and buying interest is high, but after a fast run the stock could swing sharply around the report. If guidance matches recent share gains, the price can push higher, helped by easier policy. Market optimism ahead of many reports also supports upside. Treat this as a short-term trade: buy dips, trim before earnings, and re-add if the reaction is healthy.
Primary drivers
- Price has climbed steadily, and the recent average price is trending higher
- Winning more shoppers on Pinduoduo and Temu, lifting sales and traffic
- Earnings arrive next week, a common spark that can move the stock fast
- Ran up quickly; watch for a sudden swing right after the earnings news
How it played out
PDD: thesis partly played out, target was not reached
Lyra published PDD at 127.11 on 2025-08-24 with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to steady price strength, higher recent average prices, more shoppers on Pinduoduo and Temu, and earnings the next week as a possible fast-moving event. It also warned that the quick run could swing sharply after the report.
Inside the window, PDD rose to a peak of 139.41 on 2025-10-29, a 9.7% gain. That stayed below the 149.99 target, so the target was never reached. By 2025-11-22, it ended at 113.24. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the full move it called for.
What happened during the window
On 2025-08-25, PDD reported second-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings of 22.07 yuan per ADS and revenue of 103.98 billion yuan. On 2025-11-18, PDD reported third-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings of 21.08 yuan per ADS and revenue of 108.28 billion yuan.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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