Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from July 5, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 3, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 79 days.
The thesis — published July 5, 2025
TSMC has solid finances and very upbeat market mood because many AI companies need its chips. A planned 30% U.S. tax break could make its new Arizona factory far more profitable, and U.S. import data show buyers moving orders from China to Taiwan. The stock looks a bit hot, but past small 3-5% dips have led to fresh highs. We think the price can move toward $270 by early October.
Primary drivers
- Strong 76/100 score supports the stock's above-average price.
- Proposed 30% U.S. tax credit would lift profits at the new Arizona plant.
- US data show buyers shifting orders from China to Taiwan, adding demand.
- Uptrend stays healthy, and brief price dips have often re-started the climb.
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 79 days
Lyra published TSM at $233.43 on 2025-07-05 with an 18% expected gain and a move toward $270 by early October. The thesis pointed to solid finances, upbeat demand from artificial intelligence customers, a proposed 30% U.S. tax credit for the Arizona plant, order shifts from China to Taiwan, and a pattern where 3-5% dips had restarted the climb.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $273.84 target in 79 days. It peaked at $295.92 on 2025-10-02, a 26.8% gain, and ended at $291.40. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-18, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC posted second-quarter revenue of $30.07 billion and said N2 volume production was on track for the second half of 2025. On 2025-08-08, Investopedia reported that TSMC's July revenue rose 22.5% month over month to $10.8 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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