Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from August 24, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 22, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 51% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 24, 2025
Microsoft is a strong business that has fallen more than its story suggests. Over the next three months, the price could drift back toward its usual range. Growing use of Azure AI and Copilot can lift sales and profits. Recent reports show rising need for powerful computers and cloud space. We plan to buy on dips and add more if buying clearly picks up, while sizing the position to handle the swings common in very large companies.
Primary drivers
- Big, high-quality company that dipped but keeps strong competitive strengths
- Azure and Copilot bring in more money as businesses adopt paid AI features
- News shows companies building more AI, boosting demand for cloud capacity
- Recent trading was far heavier than usual, hinting at a likely rebound
How it played out
MSFT: target was not reached
On 2025-08-24, Lyra published a short-term MSFT thesis at $506.28. It expected 18% growth toward $596.30. The thesis pointed to a high-quality company after a dip, Azure and Copilot monetization, rising demand for cloud capacity tied to artificial intelligence work, and heavier-than-usual trading as a possible rebound signal.
Inside the window, MSFT rose to $552.69 on 2025-10-28, a 9.2% peak gain. It stayed below the $596.30 target. By 2025-11-22, it ended at $472.12. The thesis partly played out, then faded. It never got there.
What happened during the window
On October 29, 2025, Microsoft reported first-quarter earnings of $3.72 per share and revenue of $77.7bn. The same report said Azure grew about 40%. The article also reported a revamped OpenAI agreement from that week, under which Microsoft would hold 27% of OpenAI Group PBC.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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