Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) — closed signal from August 24, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 22, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published August 24, 2025
Meta's share price looks beaten down but shows signs it could firm up. The ad business is still bringing in steady cash, while big spending on AI hardware sets up future growth. The new $10B Hyperion data center in Louisiana underscores a long-term plan to scale. If more parts of the market start improving and the trend turns upward, the stock could work back toward earlier price ranges over the next few months, though spending headlines may cause noise.
Primary drivers
- Price looks beaten down, with early signs the trend may turn upward soon
- Ad business holding up well, keeping steady cash coming in to fund growth
- A $10B Hyperion data center shows commitment to long-term expansion
- Heavy spending builds AI computing capacity that rivals may struggle to match
How it played out
META: target was never reached
Lyra published META at $753.67 on 2025-08-24 with an 18% expected gain and a $888 target. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, early signs of an upward turn, steady cash from ads, a $10B Hyperion data center, and heavy spending on artificial intelligence computing capacity.
Inside the window, META rose to a peak of $789.62 on 2025-09-19, a 4.8% gain. It stayed below the $888 target. It never got there. By 2025-11-22, the stock ended at $593.77. The thesis partially played out early, but it missed the target and finished well below the publication price.
What happened during the window
On 2025-09-17, Meta announced Ray-Ban Display glasses, with U.S. sales planned for 2025-09-30 at $799. On 2025-10-29, Meta reported third-quarter revenue of $51.24bn and a one-time non-cash tax charge of $15.93bn.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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