Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) — closed signal from August 24, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 22, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 30 days.
The thesis — published August 24, 2025
TSM looks attractive for the next few months: the price fell hard and often bounces after such drops, while strong profits help limit downside. It makes the chips that power AI and the newest phones and data centers. Reports say AI chip demand could grow over 40% each year through 2028, which supports steady orders and solid pricing. Recent market tone also helps a rebound.
Primary drivers
- The price dropped a lot and often snaps back after such quick declines
- Leader in making cutting-edge chips used for AI and modern devices
- Reports say AI chip demand could grow over 40% each year through 2028
- Investor mood is stronger than peers, which can support near-term gains
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 30 days
Lyra published TSM at 231.63 on 2025-08-24 with 20% expected growth. The target was 276.34. The thesis pointed to a sharp prior drop, possible rebound behavior, strong profits, demand for chips used in artificial intelligence, newer phones and data centers, and stronger investor mood than peers.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 30 days. It later peaked at 310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 34.1% peak gain. By 2025-11-22, it ended at 274.32, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On Oct. 16, 2025, AP reported that TSMC's July-September net profit rose nearly 40% to 452.3 billion new Taiwan dollars ($15 billion), and revenue rose 30% year over year. Tom's Hardware reported the same day that third-quarter revenue was $33.10 billion and that TSMC forecast fourth-quarter revenue between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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