Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSM) — closed signal from August 23, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 21, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 31 days.
The thesis — published August 23, 2025
TSM's price looks weaker than the business story suggests, while buyer interest remains steady, which could support a bounce over the next 0-3 months. Its lead in making chips for AI and fast computing helps keep orders solid and draws automatic buying from investment funds. US talk of taking stakes in chipmakers underscores its strategic role and potential funding help, but also adds governance risk. Add on 1-3% dips and if it moves above its recent average price.
Primary drivers
- Strong chip orders for AI and high-speed computing at cutting-edge sizes
- Price pulled back, but trading interest remains steady and healthy
- US talk of investing in chipmakers hints at policy and funding support
- Top position draws automatic buying from large, diversified funds
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 31 days
Lyra published TSM at 231.63 on 2025-08-23 with expected growth of 22% and a target of 280.94. The thesis pointed to strong chip orders for artificial intelligence and high-speed computing, a pulled-back price with steady trading interest, US talk of investing in chipmakers, and automatic buying from large funds.
Inside the window, TSM rose above the target. It reached the target in 31 days and later peaked at 310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a peak gain of 34.1%. By 2025-11-21 it ended at 274.32. The thesis played out, even though the close was below the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of $14.77 billion. The same report said fourth-quarter revenue was expected between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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