Track record · closed signal

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) — closed signal from August 22, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 20, 2025 — +26% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

BABA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$119.00 – $122.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$121.69Published — price the day we called it

$146.02Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$192.67Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$153.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 18 days.

At window close

+26%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+58.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$153.28

last close inside the window, ended November 20, 2025

Peak price

$192.67

peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published August 22, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$146.02

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$119.00 – $122.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$121.69

published August 22, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Alibaba's share price looks beaten down, and trading has been busier than normal, which often marks a calming period after a storm of headlines. A planned Hong Kong listing for Banma could free up cash and sharpen focus. On the other hand, chip news and a big investor selling add risk. Our plan: don't chase; buy near today's range with tight risk limits, and consider adding only if the trend starts to heal.

Primary drivers

Shares look washed out and trading is heavier than usual, hinting at a reset.
Banma's Hong Kong listing could surface value and improve how cash is used.
Chip-related headlines may limit China growth and weigh on expectations.
A move back above the recent average price would signal improving trend.

How it played out

BABA: target reached in 18 days

Lyra published BABA at 121.69 on 2025-08-22 with a short-term 20% expected gain. The thesis pointed to a washed-out share price, heavier trading, a possible Banma Hong Kong listing, chip-related headline risk, and the need for a move back above the recent average price.

Inside the window, the stock reached the 146.02 target in 18 days. It kept rising to a 192.67 peak on 2025-10-02, a 58.3% gain. By 2025-11-20, it ended at 153.28. The thesis played out clearly, and the move exceeded the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-29, Alibaba reported June-quarter results, and The Wall Street Journal wrote that adjusted net profit fell while net profit rose. On 2025-11-14, the New York Post reported that Alibaba denied claims from a White House memo described by the Financial Times.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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