JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from August 21, 2025
Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 19, 2025 — +5.2% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Came within reach: 98% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.
The thesis — published August 21, 2025
JPM's price looks beaten down for a bank of this quality, which often sets up a short-term bounce. An outside model rates its basics and valuation at 93%, suggesting the business is sound and the slump is mostly about recent trading. Over the next 0-3 months, consider buying in small steps near $288-$292, adding if the price steadies. Interest rates and loan health will guide profits and the odds of a rebound.
Primary drivers
- Share price has fallen sharply, which often snaps back in strong banks
- Independent model gives a strong 93% score on business quality and price
- Well-run global bank with strong brands and profits across many lines
- Interest rates and loan health are key drivers of a near-term recovery
How it played out
JPM: price rose near the 12% thesis, then faded
Lyra published JPM at $287.05 on 2025-08-21 with a short-term thesis for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to a sharp prior fall, a possible bounce in a strong bank, a 93% outside score on business quality and price, broad profits, and interest rates and loan health as key drivers.
Inside the window, JPM peaked at $320.80 on 2025-11-12 versus the $318.51 target. The recorded peak gain was 11.8%, just shy of the 12% expected growth. It ended at $301.91 on 2025-11-19. The thesis mostly played out, but it did not cleanly reach the stated growth case.
What happened during the window
On October 14, 2025, JPMorgan reported third-quarter earnings of $5.07 a share on revenue of $46.4 billion. Barron's reported that the stock fell 1.9% that day despite beating analyst forecasts. On the same date, the New York Post reported a 12% profit rise and $47.12 billion in revenue.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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