JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from August 21, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 19, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published August 21, 2025
JPM's price looks beaten down for a bank of this quality, which often sets up a short-term bounce. An outside model rates its basics and valuation at 93%, suggesting the business is sound and the slump is mostly about recent trading. Over the next 0-3 months, consider buying in small steps near $288-$292, adding if the price steadies. Interest rates and loan health will guide profits and the odds of a rebound.
Primary drivers
- Share price has fallen sharply, which often snaps back in strong banks
- Independent model gives a strong 93% score on business quality and price
- Well-run global bank with strong brands and profits across many lines
- Interest rates and loan health are key drivers of a near-term recovery
How it played out
JPM: price rose near the 12% thesis, then faded
Lyra published JPM at $287.05 on 2025-08-21 with a short-term thesis for 12% growth. The thesis pointed to a sharp prior fall, a possible bounce in a strong bank, a 93% outside score on business quality and price, broad profits, and interest rates and loan health as key drivers.
Inside the window, JPM peaked at $320.80 on 2025-11-12 versus the $318.51 target. The recorded peak gain was 11.8%, just shy of the 12% expected growth. It ended at $301.91 on 2025-11-19. The thesis mostly played out, but it did not cleanly reach the stated growth case.
What happened during the window
On October 14, 2025, JPMorgan reported third-quarter earnings of $5.07 a share on revenue of $46.4 billion. Barron's reported that the stock fell 1.9% that day despite beating analyst forecasts. On the same date, the New York Post reported a 12% profit rise and $47.12 billion in revenue.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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